Author’s note: this article has been heavily redacted since its original publish date. Content on the upstream business was redacted and re-posted elsewhere in order to expand more on the business fundamentals there and the resource fundamentals here.
- The previous installment established that cost-of-supply is the overwhelming driver of petroleum exploration and production value.
- The geological processes which resulted in the accumulation of hydrocarbons and resulted in the formation of petroleum reservoirs strongly influence the quantities of recoverable resources and their production characteristics.
- Additionally, geology is a key determinant of cost, and therefore also a key driver of upstream value.
- A grasp of geological concepts facilitates the interpretation of language within company disclosures — ultimately helping investors identify instances where value and price diverge.
Figure 1: A Different Kind of Lease
Source: Art and Framing Plus
Part 1 of this series broadly addressed the fundamentals of the broader petroleum value chain, especially from an investor’s perspective. This installment deep dives on the fundamentals of economic geology (i.e., petroleum resource management) in order to impart a holistic view of geological and technical factors governing petroleum recovery. Since cost-of-supply is the overwhelming driver of value in the upstream oil and gas business, and geology is often the overwhelming factor underlying cost, a basic understanding of petroleum geology is necessary to fully grasp the economic drivers. Topics include petroleum geology, petroleum geography, resource classification, petroleum recovery, and the fundamentals of resource quantity and production estimation. Following installments will leverage this knowledge to address the business fundamental of exploration and production, and subsequently the economics of the upstream business. At a later point, these foundations in petroleum geology, business fundamentals, and economics will help us maximize the utility of financial reports and unravel accounting minutiae.