Best of Web: Energy Investor Resources

At some point, I decided to specialize in petroleum and natural resource investing. My rationale was that generalizing held me back from achieving my true potential. Specializing would allow me to more fully grasp the business fundamentals and, therefore, grant me  an edge over generalist investors. However, as I was to find out, investing fundamentals are a generalists’ domain.

In spite of this epiphany, here I am anyway…

I complied the following information to provide an overview of staple resources that I use to conduct research.

  1. Seeking Alpha
    There are tremendous energy investment resources published under Seeking Alpha (SA). For several months now, SA Editor Michelle Carini, has published a weekly energy roll-up with links to SA articles and external sources of significance. Seeking Alpha also allows members to sign up for a daily energy investing newsletter. The biggest problem now is too much information. To deal with overwhelming data, my advice is to first pick a focus: do you want to focus on macrotrends analysis, valuation analysis, or a balance? My advice is to select analysts who do both well (they are rare). While microeconomic analysis is the core of a sound investment approach, the ability to generalize the big picture is both more illuminating and entertaining. Finally, pick a core cadre of good analysts to follow. To get started, these are just a few “must follows” for energy, natural resources, and oil & gas: Michael FitzsimmonsHFICallum TurcanForce Majeure; Value DiggerZoltan BanRobert Boslego; and ValueAnalyst. I also recommend that interested parties reviews analysts’ track records on TipRanks. Past performance is not everything, but it is an important piece of the whole picture.
  2. Twitter Personalities and Hashtags
    Actually, Twitter can be quite useful –professionally speaking — if you know which hashtags and profiles are of interest. Notably, the Organization of Oil Trading Tweeters (#OOTT) has spawned an incredibly active and diverse community of oil enthusiasts. OOTT Founders Sam Madani (@Samir_Madani) and Lisa Ward (@Lisa_Ward1990) have also founded TankerTrackers.com (@TankerTrackers).
  3. Podcasts
    Podcasts are immensely time-efficient means by which to stay educated during commutes. In 2017, EKT Interactive has made a heroic effort to keep their podcast content fresh and unique. Oil and Gas This Week, featuring Mark Lacour and Jake Courley is a relatively recent entrant but has gained wide acceptance. Vox Markets with Justin Waite is a Euro-centric podcast aimed at delivering executive level interviews and technical analysis to resource and financially oriented investors. Almost every Thursday, Motley Fool’s Industry Focus Podcast hosts an energy and material goods edition featuring regular co-hosts. I miss Tyler Crowe’s (TMFDirtyBird) regular presence, but the recent change up appears to be for the better.
  4. The Mainstream Media
    Even the mainstream media deserves credit where credit is due. The CEO interviews on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC are an immensely valuable and unique source of information. CNBC regular Dennis Gartman (of The Gartman Letter) possesses a thorough understanding of the market dynamics which drive crude oil spreads. I will say this, though: to its discredit, the mainstream media tends to be deeply pernicious and short-sighted.
  5. Research Houses
    1. BTU Analytics
    2. Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI)
    3. RBN Energy
    4. Rystad Energy
    5. Drilling Info
    6. Genscape
    7. Bloomberg New Energy Finance
    8. Goerhing & Rozenczajg Research – “We conduct deep, insightful research  that often uncovers data points and trend changes in depressed markets that few investors see. Often, we reach conclusions that differ greatly from
      consensus and that go against the commonly accepted investment wisdom. We take great pride in our research. We admit that many times we are far too early in calling a market turn. We also admit that sometimes our  research is wrong. While we try vigorously to avoid both scenarios, we are neither embarrassed nor do we attempt to hide when we do make mistakes. Instead, we realize that sometimes being wrong is a function of undertaking original research that significantly deviates from the consensus opinion.”
    9. ScotiaBank – Sponsor of the Scotia Weil Energy Conference. Also, the bank publishes an annual playbook that is cited in many corporate presentations. I would love to get my hands on a copy.
  6. Staple Analysts
    1. John Kemp (Reuters / World coverage) – Renowned for having spotted asymmetric bets (“the big long”) on crude oil in 2014-2015.
    2. Geoffrey Morgan (Financial Post / Canadian Upstream and Midstream Coverage)
    3. Joe Gemino (Morningstar Equity Research / Energy)
    4. Richard Zeits (Seeking Alpha / Upstream) – Richard’s late 2017 contributions are excellent. His poor track record can be mainly attributed to undue optimism about U.S. producers’ costs and price realization during the 2014-2015 commodities downturn.
    5. Zoltan Ban (Seeking Alpha / Upstream) – His track record speaks for itself.
    6. Value Digger (Seeking Alpha / Upstream) – Value Digger does an astoundingly good job uncovering value. He is a generalist, but devotes a significant portion of effort to identifying upstream value. His/her track record is astounding.
    7. HFIR (Seeking Alpha / Upstream) – Operating tempo is feverish, especially given his/her outstanding track record.
    8. Laurentian Research (Seeking Alpha / Upstream) – A colorful writer with an envious track record.
  7. Staple Reports
Daily
  • EIA
    • Today In Energy – A staple product for a U.S.-centric daily synopsis on energy topics. Includes updated regional energy prices from a variety of data sources (wholesale spot petroleum prices from Thomson Reuters; retail petroleum prices from AAA Fuel Gauge Report, front month energy futures from CME Group, and select spot prices from SNL Energy).

Weekly

Monthly

Quarterly and Semi-Monthly
Annual and Semi-Annual
  • Energy Information Agency (EIA)
  • International Energy Agency
    • World Energy Sankey Diagram
    • World Energy Outlook
      • Annual outlook to 2040
      • Scenario and Projections: “Up until 2010, the structure tended to focus on a Reference Scenario, in which policy assumptions were fixed at the present day… In 2010, the main focus shifted to the New Policies Scenario, which incorporates existing energy policies as well as an assessment of the results likely to stem from the implementation of announced policy intentions… the old Reference Scenario moved to the background, becoming the Current Policies Scenario… In WEO-2017, we introduced the Sustainable Development Scenario, which examines what it would take to achieve the main energy-related components of the “2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development” adopted in 2015 by member states of the United Nations.
      • The IEA’s World Energy Model (WEM) is the underlying tool for the World Energy Outlook analysis. The WEM is a partial equilibrium model designed to replicate how energy markets function and provides medium to long-term energy projections. Documentation describing the overall approach and features of WEM may be found in the WEM Methodology. “
  • BP’s Department of Petroleum Economics
  • Exxon Mobil 40 Year Energy Outlook
  • International Gas Union World LNG Report (a collaboration with Chevron Corporation)
  • Government of Canada – National Energy Board (NEB)
    • Energy Dynamics Annual Review
      • “Canadian Energy Dynamics is an annual, easy-to-read retrospective of energy market highlights. Designed to support the Board’s goals of providing independent, fact-based energy information, this report increases energy market literacy and supports energy transparency in Canada.”
    • Canadian Pipeline Transportation System Annual Review
      • “This report, Canada’s Pipeline Transportation System, provides information about the economic functioning of major pipelines regulated by the Board. In 2015, $99.7 billion worth of energy products were shipped in these pipelines at an estimated transportation cost of $7.3 billion.”
    • Canadian Energy Overview (CEO)
      • “The CEO provides basic data on Canadian energy supply and markets in a given year.”

Periodic
  • Rystad Energy Press Releases
  • Government of Canada – National Energy Board (NEB)
    • Market Snapshots
      • “Regular energy information updates illustrate emerging trends in various segments of the energy market. They provide topical energy information to Canadians.”
    • Feature Articles
      • “Feature articles provide regular, in-depth analyses related to trends in Canadian energy markets.”
  • Alberta Energy Regulator (AER)
    • ST98: Alberta’s Energy Reserves and Supply/Demand Outlook
      • “…AER regularly updates ST98: Alberta’s Energy Reserves and Supply/Demand Outlook, which gives stakeholders independent and comprehensive information on the state of reserves and supply and demand for Alberta’s diverse energy resources: crude bitumen, crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, sulphur, and coal.”

Notes:

  • I encourage those interested in building a foundational understanding of the oil and gas business to visit this site’s “Fundamentals” section for updated industry primers.
  • My Energy Blog and Energy News feeds aggregate news and updated content from a number of primary outlets.
  • For brave souls who dare conduct their own research, I have compiled additional resources in The Depths of Commodity Hell

If you feel that I’ve neglected an essential resource, or have somehow misfairly rated any of the aforesaid, please reach out with your feedback…