World Oil: In Permian basin, jitters mount that a bust is near

Steve Pruett has seen more than his share of booms in three decades in the oil business. None, though, as strange as the one gripping the Permian basin right now…. “Oil men are innately optimistic,” he said, “and sometimes our optimism is our own worst enemy.”…By this point, “we’ve given up all of our profit margin,” he said, referring to the industry. “We’re over-capitalized, we’re over-drilling and, if prices don’t rise, we might be facing a double dip in drilling.” […]

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WA Post: The United States of oil and gas

Since 2010, the United States has been in an oil-and-gas boom. In 2015, domestic production was at near-record levels, and we now produce more petroleum products than any other country in the world. President Trump said he plans to double down on the oil and gas industry, lifting regulations and drilling on federal land. Here is the state of the petroleum extraction industry that the new administration will inherit. […]

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Blog Post: Product Development Payoff Asymmetry

“[Certainty can] seem like a good idea, but actually lead us into trouble… The story here revolved primarily around the stochastic nature of product development… Succeeding in product development requires the discovery and exploitation of options where there is an asymmetry to the payoff function.” […]

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Reuters: Canada expects crude-by-rail boom as pipeline project collapses

TransCanada Corp’s decision this week to scrap its $12 billion Energy East pipeline and delays to other export pipeline projects look set to increase producers’ reliance on costly crude-by-rail to bring barrels to market. […]

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Watt’s Up With That: A Tale of Two Sigmoids

There are dozens of different mathematical constructions that yield bell-shaped curves. The “Hubbert” or “Peak Oil” curve is actually a special case of a class of s-shaped functions called sigmoids. While most sigmoid functions begin and end at different values, Hubbert’s curve is constrained to begin and end at zero by the formula and boundary conditions imposed that represent a perfect mathematical translation of Hubbert’s worldview. The curve reflects a battle between two competing forces or trends – one for growth and one for contraction – where the balance shifts between the two along the way. […]

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Article (Alberta Oil Magazine): The Best Little Oil Companies in Canada

Date of Source: 21 Oct 2016

Summary:
Fifteen years ago it was common knowledge that oil and gas production in North America was in terminal decline. After decades of exploration, all of the profitable onshore oil and gas in Canada and the U.S. had already been discovered… While the attention of the majors was elsewhere, close to home something happened. Small companies run by entrepreneurial management teams cracked the code on vast amounts of oil and gas located here in North America. […]

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Report: Commodities Demystified – A Guide to Trading and the Global Supply Chain

Date of Source: 2016

Summary:
Commodities trading – supply of the basic staples that are converted into the food we eat, the industrial goods we use, and the energy that fuels our transport and heats and lights our lives – is one of the oldest forms of economic activity, yet it is also one of the most widely misunderstood. At no time has this been truer than in the last 20 years, with the emergence of a group of specialist commodities trading and logistics firms operating in a wide range of complex markets […] 

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AQR – Cliff’s Perspective: Fama on Momentum

Date of Source: 05 Feb 2016

Summary:
The long-term success of the momentum factor seems to be a challenge to many observers. People say things like “momentum only works among small stocks” or “momentum only works for going short, not long.” These comments, which appear to be aimed at casting doubt on the implementability of momentum, seem to be spoken about more than written. There’s a reason for that. When you run the numbers, these statements are just not close to true. We’ve disproven a whole gaggle of them here. But, like many misperceptions, once in the zeitgeist they remain hard to kill. […]

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Reblog: Grossly Distorted Prosperity — Surplus Energy Economics

Date of Source: 30 Oct 2016

Summary:
ECONOMIC DECELERATION – AND HOW TO MEASURE IT One of the quirks of economics is that, within GDP (gross domestic product), all output is included, irrespective of what it really adds to prosperity. GDP, like Oscar Wilde’s cynic, knows “the price of everything, but the value of nothing”. If government paid 100,000 people to dig […]

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